On September 30, I will celebrate my two year anniversary in country, and Ukraine will have it's second parliamentary election in two years on that date. While I certainly don't view myself as an expert in what might happen, here are my views, for what it's worth.
Similar to most parliamentary systems, there are several major parties and many more minor ones. The major ones are the Party of Regions (PR), led by Victor Yanukovych, Our Ukraine (OU), led by Victor Yuschenko, and Byut (B), the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc. OU and B can be categorized as the "Orange" parties, parties that led and benefited from the Orange Revolution of 2004. PR was the big loser in 2004, having "won" the original election, but then losing it through charges of election fraud.
Neither of the three will get enough to govern without forming a coalition. OU and B are ideological partners, sort of, but personality opposites, while PR is ideological opposites from the previous two. PR has their support in the east and south of Ukraine, where the population tends to be more Russian, while the other two garner support from the west of Ukraine, where Ukrainian nationalism is more prevalent.
While PR likes to promote itself as "new and improved", the only real difference from the PR that governed earlier in the decade is the presence of "Image Managers," mostly from the USA. It's the same PR as before, just fancier duds and more democratic talk. Corruption as a way of live is still prevalent here, and PR leads the way in this regard. But it seems that if you want something done here, practicing a little corruption goes a long way.
The best description I've read about OU, one I totally concur with, is "never has so much goodwill been squandered so quickly, with so little results". As the big winner in the Orange Revolution, they could have changed a lot of things, but didn't. In addition, while Victor Yuschenko may be good at running a country, he fails at the most important job a politician has: being a politician.
Then there's Yulia Tymoshenko. She's continually running as a reformist, and compared to the other two, she is. While charges of past corruption continue to follow her, one wonders how much of a reformer she really is, or indeed if she could be one in the first place. Yet, she has set herself apart to some extent from the "business as usual" crowd. That may or may not bode well.
So who one might want to lead the country depends on a number of things. Each candidate has their own peculiar weaknesses, making enthusiastic support difficult. It then comes down to where you stand on certain "big" issues. "Business as usual" or reform. Russian leaning or EU leaning. Pro NATO or anti-NATO.
I cannot vote during this election. If I could, who would I select? Likely, Yulia Tymoshenko and her party. I believe a reformer is still needed to move Ukraine ahead, even if she shows herself to not be that much of a reformer in the end. I believe closer ties to Europe is beneficial for Ukraine, which she supports, but not at the expense of worse ties to Russia, which would likely be the outcome of such closer ties if not handled well. Staying friends with Russia will yield many political and economic benefits in the future, ties people here should not ignore. Her pro-NATO stand is most troubling, though. A pro-NATO stand, while popular with Ukrainian nationalists, would only needlessly antagonize Russia and Ukraine's Russian population and possibly lead to a call by certain factions to split from Ukraine. And that benefits no one.
Technorati Tags: Kiev, Kyiv, Ukraine Politics
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